A federal appeals court in 2024 allowed Kalshi to offer contracts on which party controls Congress after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission tried to block them.
Volume on U.S. election-related contracts exceeded $3.7 billion on Polymarket alone during the 2024 presidential cycle, according to industry data cited by Reuters.
Supporters argue prediction markets aggregate information faster and more accurately than polls; critics argue they create financial incentives for manipulation of campaigns and voters.
The CFTC has historically opposed event contracts tied to elections, citing concerns about election integrity and the difficulty of policing insider trading across thousands of races.
Unlike securities markets, prediction markets lack a uniform federal insider-trading statute, leaving enforcement to contract terms and CFTC anti-manipulation rules.