Elections & Polling

The Electoral College and the popular vote diverge for specific structural reasons. Here is what is actually happening underneath the headlines.

Single polls are noisy. Aggregators are not. Here is what aggregating actually does to polling data and why the resulting picture is more useful.

Most poll coverage points at the wrong number. Here's how to read a presidential survey the way pollsters actually read one — and what it can and can't tell you.

High turnout used to favor one party. Now the relationship is more complicated. Here is what turnout actually tells you about an election.

Swing states are not a fixed list. Here is what actually defines one, and why states drop on and off the map between elections.

Out of fifty states, one usually decides the election. Here is what a tipping point state is, why it matters, and how to find it on a map.

The order of state primaries does as much to pick a nominee as the votes themselves. Here is how the calendar actually works, and who it favors.